Abstract

e17002 Background: Biochemical recurrence (BCR) following radical prostatectomy (RP) is an unreliable predictor of distant metastatic progression or prostate cancer (PC) death, consequently resulting in overtreatment. Further, little has been published about active surveillance (AS) specific management recommendations. Herein, we validate the practicality of using the kinetics (change) of PSA doubling time (PSADT) to direct continued observation versus intervention. Methods: In a retrospective cohort analysis of 406 men with BCR (defined as adjuvant therapy or PSA > 0.2 ng/dl, x2), 284 men were monitored post RP with PSADT graphs for all patients, and the PSADT was characterized as increasing vs decreasing. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to assess the sensitivity/specificity/positive predictive value/negative predictive value of PSADT progression on treatment and prostate cancer specific mortality at 10 years post-RARP, respectively. Results: The median follow-up was 7.6 (IQR: 4.6-10.6) years. Of 284 men, 109 (38%) and 175 (62%) were in the no treatment versus treatment groups, respectively. 87% of men receiving treatment had a decreasing PSADT and 100% men with PCSM had a decreasing PSADT. ROC analysis showed 0.870 sensitivity and 1.0 specificity when predicting secondary treatment (AUC = 0.935) and 0.857 sensitivity and 0.50 specificity when predicting PCSM (AUC = 0.679). Conclusions: A decreasing PSADT is a sensitive and specific metric for predicting the need for secondary intervention. We also found all men who died of PC had a decreasing PSADT. Lastly an increasing DT predicts a benign course without need for treatment. The current findings suggest that the kinetics of PSADT, increasing versus decreasing, is an accurate metric for the need of treatment. A direct comparison between PSADT kinetics and PSADT is needed.